Research Reports
This study examines the direction of bilateral and multilateral cooperation with Korea centered on Vietnam and Cambodia among the CLMV countries with such strategic importance. In the course of economic proliferation of the Global Value Chain(GVC), we looked at ways to strengthen cooperation between the two countries, and at the same time, proposed the direction of Korea’s cooperation through each country’s country risk analysis.
The study first examines the changes in total export value added of each country using OECD TiVA data to examine the diffusion of production value chain in the region. Vietnam’s total export value added in 1995~2011 period shows that the value added to total exports has greatly increased from USD 6.97billion in 1995 to USD 95.56billion in 2011. With the exception of 2009, when the global financial crisis occurred, it continued to grow. Cambodia, on the other hand, did not reach Vietnam in terms of size and growth rate of export value added; in Cambodia, the added value embodied in exports in 1995 amounted to about USD 1.03billion, about one sixth of Vietnam. However, the value added of export in 2011 was about USD 6.91billion, decreasing to about 1/15 of Vietnam’s value added. Although the value added scale was relatively low compared to Vietnam, the growth rate has been steadily increasing since 1995.
In case of country risk, Cambodia has lower rating than Vietnam, which shows that country risk is high. The following are the evaluation factors that show a significant difference in the difference of national risk difference among these countries. The factors that best represent the country risk between the two countries are estimated. As a result of the estimation, it is shown that the foreign exchange reserve, monthly average income, the economic growth rate and the economic risk represent the difference in the country risk between the two countries. Also, in order for Cambodia to lower its country risk to the level of Vietnam, it will be necessary to achieve long-term sustainable economic growth and to improve foreign exchange repayment capacity by increasing foreign reserves. Vietnam also needs to focus on increasing its foreign exchange reserves as pointed out by private credit rating agencies, considering export-oriented economic policies and the size of future trade.
We analyzed the impact of AfT on the vertical specialization of the recipient country and examined the effect of AfT on the participation of the recipient country in the production network. Analysis of bilateral AfT data between 15 AfT donor countries and 130 recipient countries shows that AfT has the effect of promoting vertical specialization between donor countries and recipient countries. However, these effects were strongly supported for high-income countries, while for low-income countries and low-middle-income countries, AfT did not have a significant effect on expanding vertical specialization. This is due to the lack of human resources in low-income countries. As a result, it can be seen that the effect of AfT is higher in the high-income countries with rich human resources.
In order to strengthen the GVC with Vietnam and Cambodia, Korea needs to improve the infrastructure and system improvement that can support the entry base of Korean firms through AfT. Support for trade facilitation such as strengthening production capacity of each country and improvement of customs clearance system, and support for regulatory improvement to eliminate various regulatory should be provided to facilitate Korean companies’ business environment and attract the two countries’ active involvement of regional/global GVC. In addition, it is necessary to cooperate with the industrial policy of the other country and the strategy of national development to find out the industry in which the needs of Korea are common and to support and foster them jointly. Finally, there is a need for efforts at the governmental and/or private level to expand understanding of the other country through not only intergovernmental cooperation but also mutual exchange of human resources.
The works on this page are licensed for fair use under the provisions of the Korea Open Government License. See kogl.or.kr for more information.
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코로나19 발생 이후 대부분의 고용 관심사가 항공 및 여행서비스, 음식·숙박 서비스 등 주로 서비스 업종에 집중된 상황에서 본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 강조되고 있는 제조업의 고용변화를 살펴보았다. 분석에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 제조업 고용은 비교적 큰 충격 없이 빠르게 회복하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 제조업 고용은 서비스업에 비해 큰 충격 없이 유지되고 있고, 코로나19 직후 2020년 상반기에 약간 하락하였지만 하반기부터 회복 추세를 보이고 있으며, OECD 주요국의 제조업과 비교하여도 일본과 함께 고용 충격이 비교적 작게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 전반적으로 양호한 고용 성적에도 불구하고 제조업 내 특성 별로는 차이가 나타나는 것으로 보인다. 종사상 지위 별로 보면, 임시·일용직, 고용원이 있는 자영업자에서 고용 충격이 상대적으로 크게 나타났고, 상용직과 고용원이 없는 자영업자는 큰 충격이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 제조업 규모별로는 300인 이상의 경우 코로나 발생 초기 약간의 충격 이후 고용이 빠르게 반등하면서 코로나 이전보다 고용이 더 증가한 반면, 이보다 작은 규모의 제조업체들의 경우 고용 회복이 더디게 나타나고 있다. 고용의 중장기, 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과 제조업 업종에 따른 차이를 보였다. 코로나 발생 이전 3년간의 추세선을 2020년 1월부터 연장한 선과, 2020년 1월부터의 실제 자료를 이용한 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과, 의약품은 코로나19 발생 이전부터 시작하여 코로나19 발생 이후에도 견조한 증가세를 유지하고 있으며, 전자부품·컴퓨터, 기타운송장비, 가구는 코로나19 이후 오히려 고용 추세가 개선되었다. 그러나 다수 업종은 코로나 발생 이후 고용이 하락하였는데, 특히, 비금속광물, 1차금속, 금속가공 분야나 인쇄·기록매체 업종에서 하락이 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.
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