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Republic of Korea’s Export Industry Promotion ODA Strategy in the Post-2015 Era 2015.12.30

On September 2015, UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) launched the Sustainable Development Goals 2030 (hereafter Post-2015 or SDGs), replacing the Millennium Development Goals 2015 (hereafter MDGs). The SDGs are international agreement that sets out a basic guideline for Official Development Assistance for next 15 years, until 2030. Republic of Korea’s (hereafter Korea) ODA policy regarding development of export industry to developing countries should be built around the basis of the SDGs fundamental belief. One of the most important limitations of the MDGs is that the development goals focus exceedingly on social development without considering natural course of social improvement that can be nduced through industrialization and economic development. Reflecting on the noted limitation, the SDGs include number of agendas, such as expanding developing countries’ participation in the international market, to build basis for economic and social change. Korea’s outward oriented economic development experience, first through export-driven economic growth, and thereafter through trade liberalization, is a well recognized example of how expansion of market openness can catalyze the process of economic growth and poverty eradication. Considering above implications, this study will review debates on the Post-2015 development agendas, and identify the correlation between Korea’s export industry promotion strategy and social development policy. Through the examination, this paper will suggest export industry promotion ODA strategy’s action plan. First of all, Chapter two aims to reevaluate the MDGs’ development goals, focusing on the trade policy. This section will also identify related goals and detailed agendas on the recently released SDGs in order to discuss export policy’s role and challenges in the Post-2015 era. Compared to the MDGs, the SDGs propose specific action plan on each agenda with consideration of linkages between international trade and social development. In terms of trade, in particular, the SDGs include wide-range of issues such as export-import promotion, expansion of FDIs, guarantee of foreign remittances and others. It is clear to note that the SDGs are notably improved plan than the former one. The third chapter examines the Korean development experiences  in regards to export promotion strategy and main social development policies, including human capital development, gender equality, income distribution, environmental problem, public health and medical treatment and others. Through analyzing the issues from each time period, this paper aims to explore the correlation between export industrialization and social development policies. Based on the findings, the correlation can be briefly summarized as following. Firstly, human resources development contributes greatly to the socio-economic development, creating effective synergy with export industrialization. Secondly, Korean government’s effort to eradicate poverty achieved the most remarkable output during the onset of export industrialization starting in the 1960s. This case study clearly indicates that economic development is an effective measure to eliminate poverty in the short term. In addition, the government made a gradual progress in the public health and medical sector, with proper investment and efforts to set foundations, to meet the growing social demand according to the increase in GDP. Thirdly, however, the correlation between export industrialization and income distribution is weak in nature because of historic context, type of export industry, and other social, economic and cultural factors, of each country. Thus, it is difficult to clearly identify the correlation and to derive implication for developing countries. Lastly, from Korea’s experience, the connection between export industrialization and general equality and environmental issues is insignificant or in fact, has reverse correlation. In terms of gender equality, although export industrialization at the early stage provided job opportunities for female workers, due to social and cultural issues (including socio-economic status or excess to resources), it had many constraints to contribute to the enhancement of gender equality. On the final chapter, based on the discussions above, this report will discuss about the basic guideline and strategy of the ODA policy specializing in export industry development. First and foremost, the ODA policy should work in harmony with fundamental principle of the SDGs. In order to achieve this, systematic and strategic understanding of correlation between export industry promotion and socio-economic development is needed. Also, donor countries should encourage their partner country to pursue integral approach, incorporating both social and economic policies, to promote export industrialization. Secondly, because export related agendas within the SDGs, in nature, are associated with multinational negotiations within the WTO, there are possibilities of disagreement between the development aid policy direction and export policy stance in the mist of meeting the SDGs. Thus, policy measures to minimize any possible conflict are required. Thirdly, the international community should highlight the importance of production capacity building of the Least Developed Countries (hereafter LDCs). In order to promote socio-economic development through international trade, the LDCs should focus on capacity building rather than taking passive actions for expanding market access. Recent expansion of Preferential Trading Agreement (PTA) presented the LDCs with another set of challenges even with export expansion preferential rules (dutyfree, quota-free market access) set by the SDGs. Therefore, Korea’s  ODA policy, focusing on the export industry promotion, should also emphasize the production capacity building program. As a final note, to further enhance the effectiveness of export and trade related ODAs, it is crucial to make efforts to main-stream Aid for Trade (hereafter AfT) within the overarching ODA policy. In particular, in accordance with fundamental emphasis of the SDGs, linkage between socio-economic development and trade issue should be established as a cross-cutting issue to be included in all mainstream ODA programs. In order to apply this, an operational guideline for AfT with a clear set of purpose, enforcement system, and management and evaluation system should be established

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월간 KIET 산업경제 코로나19 발생 이후 제조업 고용 변화: 중간 점검

코로나19 발생 이후 대부분의 고용 관심사가 항공 및 여행서비스, 음식·숙박 서비스 등 주로 서비스 업종에 집중된 상황에서 본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 강조되고 있는 제조업의 고용변화를 살펴보았다. 분석에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 제조업 고용은 비교적 큰 충격 없이 빠르게 회복하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 제조업 고용은 서비스업에 비해 큰 충격 없이 유지되고 있고, 코로나19 직후 2020년 상반기에 약간 하락하였지만 하반기부터 회복 추세를 보이고 있으며, OECD 주요국의 제조업과 비교하여도 일본과 함께 고용 충격이 비교적 작게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 전반적으로 양호한 고용 성적에도 불구하고 제조업 내 특성 별로는 차이가 나타나는 것으로 보인다. 종사상 지위 별로 보면, 임시·일용직, 고용원이 있는 자영업자에서 고용 충격이 상대적으로 크게 나타났고, 상용직과 고용원이 없는 자영업자는 큰 충격이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 제조업 규모별로는 300인 이상의 경우 코로나 발생 초기 약간의 충격 이후 고용이 빠르게 반등하면서 코로나 이전보다 고용이 더 증가한 반면, 이보다 작은 규모의 제조업체들의 경우 고용 회복이 더디게 나타나고 있다. 고용의 중장기, 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과 제조업 업종에 따른 차이를 보였다. 코로나 발생 이전 3년간의 추세선을 2020년 1월부터 연장한 선과, 2020년 1월부터의 실제 자료를 이용한 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과, 의약품은 코로나19 발생 이전부터 시작하여 코로나19 발생 이후에도 견조한 증가세를 유지하고 있으며, 전자부품·컴퓨터, 기타운송장비, 가구는 코로나19 이후 오히려 고용 추세가 개선되었다. 그러나 다수 업종은 코로나 발생 이후 고용이 하락하였는데, 특히, 비금속광물, 1차금속, 금속가공 분야나 인쇄·기록매체 업종에서 하락이 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.

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