Research Reports
The energy sector is considered as an essential part of development in developing countries, although it has not been fully covered by the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). Recently, the proposal for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), drawn from the MDGs, includes the energy issue as a separated target to achieve. Under the Goal 7, “Ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”, energy related specific targets are the followings : (i) ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services by 2030, (ii) increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix by 2030, (iii) double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030.
The fundamental purpose of this research is to carry out specific development cooperation programs in both the defined region and the sector, in consideration of the regional significance of CLMV countries and the high demands for energy access in the Mekong subregion. We look for ways to conceptualize and implement the Korean government’s development cooperation programs that reflect our comparative advantages in partnership with developing countries
based on Korea’s country partnership strategies.
For the above reasons, we study the conditions of energy supply and demand, and the institutional status regarding the energy sector such as policy, system and organizations in the CLMV countries in more detail. This study will provide an insight into the energy sector for development cooperation policy makers and implementers and also guidance from a business side regarding the regional and proper programs in order to help extend its investment in the targeted region.
The CLMV countries generally have underdeveloped physical infrastructure. Vietnam retains better conditions than the other three countries that are included in the UN list of the least developed countries in 2014. As for the primary energy supply, over 70% comes from biomass
in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar, while 70% is from fossil fuel such as oil, coal and natural gas in Vietnam. Vietnam’s electrification rate is up to 98%, while that of the other three countries(Cambodia(31%), Laos(63%), Myanmar(49%)) stays at low levels.
Cambodia has good solar radiation levels in many locations, especially in the southwest region. According to the master plan on rural electrification in Cambodia, by 2020, all villages will have access to electricity of different forms; and by 2030, 70% of all rural house holds will have access to grid based electricity. The energy policy in Cambodia needs to be updated and subsidy programs for promoting renewable energy should be introduced urgently.
Hydropower accounts for 100% of the electricity generation in Laos with high potential for further development. The electricity generated by hydropower is the second largest export item in Laos, although the electricity market is still inconsistent. Energy loss during electricity
transmission and distribution causes electricity shortage problems for the domestic people and thus the higher demand for imported electricity from other countries.
More than 90% of the primary energy sources in Myanmar are biomass and natural gas. The government of Myanmar has planned an increase in the share of renewables in power generating capacity to 15~18% by 2020. The electricity law in Myanmar was established in
1983, which is under the process of revision as of now. The weak energy policy, system and institutions in Myanmar should be taken into consideration in an energy support program for Myanmar.
The consumption for fossil fuel in Vietnam took a sharp increase in the 2000s. Vietnam is expected to achieve the target of 6% of power generation from renewable resources by 2030. Vietnam has significant potential for wind power in the southern coastal area and the islands, which is differentiated from the other countries in the region. In addition, in the central and southern areas, the solar power is expected to be developed. On the other hand, it is estimated that the energy demand will exceed the energy supply from 2015, thus the Vietnamese government is requested to increase energy efficiency to sustain its energy supply.
The research provides a methodological model to design a development cooperation program in the energy sector, enabling systemic support on the basis of closer cooperation with a partner country from the initial stage of the intervention as well as demand-oriented program establishment. Therefore, methodology is developed for selecting and planning an energy program from the initial stage along the project cycle. According to the developed methodology, information regarding the energy sector in a partner country is first gatheredto assess its energy situation. Based on the energy condition in a partner country, a logic model of the program is set up. Consequently, considering both the logic model and our capability, the proper program to support is determined, but still the type of support - software
or hardware support - should be decided depending on the situation. If the program concerns infrastructure support, the target of energy - households or production/community -, the type of electricity provision - on-grid or off-grid - should be further defined.
We provide a checklist in order to help survey each country’s energy situation exhaustively and efficiently. The checklist covers general energy situation, a national policy and system, institutions and organizations, technology and assets, a private sector and specific finances. Any urgent energy issues gathered through the survey are reflected in the logic model and further steps for designing a program are taken. Expected results from the whole process (input - activity -output - outcome - impact) of an energy access program for developing
countries should be described.
As the result of the research on CLMV countries about their energy situation and the methodology for the energy access cooperation program, we suggest a potential program for each country.
The ‘Distributed solar power program for remote areas’ is proposed for Cambodia, which indicates a significantly low level of electrification rate but large potential for solar energy on an annual basis. It is consistent with the core program from the Country Partnership Strategy(CPS) of the Korean government.
We propose the ‘Hydropower efficiency improvement program by enhancing electricity transmission and distribution system’ for Laos, which has great potential for hydropower. It is relevant to the 7th National Socio-Economic Development Plan of Laos and the major sectors in the CPS of the Korean government as well.
In Myanmar, foreign investment and support has been expanding in the energy sector, increasing the establishment of fossil fuel power plants since efficiency of power generation with fossil fuel is comparatively high. To avoid any irreversibly harmful energy development
and pursue sustainable use of energy in Myanmar, we suggest both the ‘Distributed solar power program for remote areas’ and ‘Strengthening the enabling environment for the smart grid development program’.
In Vietnam, energy demand and intensity have been sharply increased due to progression of rapid industrialization. For Vietnam, hence, we propose for the ‘Design and implementation of demandside energy saving system program’. This program will assist implemention of the energy efficiency program as well as the energy saving and efficiency law, which have been introduced by the Vietnamese government in urgent need of energy efficiency improvement.
Lastly, to realize energy development in developing countries effectively, we conclude with the following as essentials for successful interventions : (i) Strong leadership and active involvement of the developing countries’ governments, (ii) consistency with other development
goals and policies, (iii) participation of the local people and organizations, (iv) institutional support and capacity.
The works on this page are licensed for fair use under the provisions of the Korea Open Government License. See kogl.or.kr for more information.
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코로나19 발생 이후 대부분의 고용 관심사가 항공 및 여행서비스, 음식·숙박 서비스 등 주로 서비스 업종에 집중된 상황에서 본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 강조되고 있는 제조업의 고용변화를 살펴보았다. 분석에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 제조업 고용은 비교적 큰 충격 없이 빠르게 회복하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 제조업 고용은 서비스업에 비해 큰 충격 없이 유지되고 있고, 코로나19 직후 2020년 상반기에 약간 하락하였지만 하반기부터 회복 추세를 보이고 있으며, OECD 주요국의 제조업과 비교하여도 일본과 함께 고용 충격이 비교적 작게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 전반적으로 양호한 고용 성적에도 불구하고 제조업 내 특성 별로는 차이가 나타나는 것으로 보인다. 종사상 지위 별로 보면, 임시·일용직, 고용원이 있는 자영업자에서 고용 충격이 상대적으로 크게 나타났고, 상용직과 고용원이 없는 자영업자는 큰 충격이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 제조업 규모별로는 300인 이상의 경우 코로나 발생 초기 약간의 충격 이후 고용이 빠르게 반등하면서 코로나 이전보다 고용이 더 증가한 반면, 이보다 작은 규모의 제조업체들의 경우 고용 회복이 더디게 나타나고 있다. 고용의 중장기, 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과 제조업 업종에 따른 차이를 보였다. 코로나 발생 이전 3년간의 추세선을 2020년 1월부터 연장한 선과, 2020년 1월부터의 실제 자료를 이용한 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과, 의약품은 코로나19 발생 이전부터 시작하여 코로나19 발생 이후에도 견조한 증가세를 유지하고 있으며, 전자부품·컴퓨터, 기타운송장비, 가구는 코로나19 이후 오히려 고용 추세가 개선되었다. 그러나 다수 업종은 코로나 발생 이후 고용이 하락하였는데, 특히, 비금속광물, 1차금속, 금속가공 분야나 인쇄·기록매체 업종에서 하락이 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.
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