Research Reports
Since the end of World War II, the liberal international order that provided the institutional foundation for global trade has been in de cline, and the restructuring of supply chains has emerged as a core is sue in international politics. Following the dysfunction of the rules-based multilateral system of GATT/WTO, the contours of an alter native international trade order remain uncertain. However, expect ations are growing that a new order based on a balance of power among major powers that recognize each other’s spheres of influence will reemerge.
Western advanced countries such as the US and Europe are leading these changes at the international order level and are pushing forward trade and industrial policies aimed at fundamentally restructuring sup ply chain structures that have developed in line with the existing order as core policy agendas. China and Russia are also introducing new supply chain strategies in response to these changes in the international political landscape, and North Korea is expected to pursue policies to secure a new position. The international political environment surrounding North Korea, China, and Russia, as well as China and Russia’s supply chain strategies, will bring about structural changes that will significantly influence North Korea’s relations with the global market and its economic development strategies.
To understand the significance of the current supply chain restructuring and anticipate future directions, it is necessary to adopt a long-term historical perspective and trace the changes in the nature of international division of labor among the three countries back to the socialist era before the dissolution of the Soviet Union. During the Cold War, the participation of the Soviet Union, China, and North Korea in international trade, as well as trade among the three countries, was characterized by exclusion from the Western-dominated international order. The COMECON system, which was established as an alternative international order centered on the Soviet Union, also failed to provide a sustainable source of long-term growth through the expansion and deepening of international division of labor among nations. International division of labor that transcended bilateral cooperation centered on aid did not develop between the Soviet Union and China, the Soviet Union and North Korea, and the trade order and structure linking the three countries did not develop.
The collapse of the Cold War served as an opportunity for former so cialist countries such as Russia and China to participate in the Western-led international trade order. The trade and production struc tures that had been formed in response to exclusion from the Western-led order underwent fundamental restructuring to align with new division of labor relationships in the global market. The most sig nificant structural change is the rise of China as an industrial powerhouse. China has rapidly emerged as a hub in global supply chains across many industries. As China’s demand for energy and resources necessary for industrial development surged, a GVC-type trade structure developed, connecting resource-rich countries, China as a manufacturing base, and advanced countries as consumer markets. Trade between China and Russia has also increased rapidly in line with this trend, centered on Chinese manufacturing exports and Russian energy and resource exports. Meanwhile, North Korea has been unable to escape the exclusion it experienced during the Cold War and has not experienced a significant increase in international trade. In particular, the economic sanctions imposed due to the nuclear crisis have further exacerbated the situation.
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코로나19 발생 이후 대부분의 고용 관심사가 항공 및 여행서비스, 음식·숙박 서비스 등 주로 서비스 업종에 집중된 상황에서 본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 강조되고 있는 제조업의 고용변화를 살펴보았다. 분석에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 제조업 고용은 비교적 큰 충격 없이 빠르게 회복하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 제조업 고용은 서비스업에 비해 큰 충격 없이 유지되고 있고, 코로나19 직후 2020년 상반기에 약간 하락하였지만 하반기부터 회복 추세를 보이고 있으며, OECD 주요국의 제조업과 비교하여도 일본과 함께 고용 충격이 비교적 작게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 전반적으로 양호한 고용 성적에도 불구하고 제조업 내 특성 별로는 차이가 나타나는 것으로 보인다. 종사상 지위 별로 보면, 임시·일용직, 고용원이 있는 자영업자에서 고용 충격이 상대적으로 크게 나타났고, 상용직과 고용원이 없는 자영업자는 큰 충격이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 제조업 규모별로는 300인 이상의 경우 코로나 발생 초기 약간의 충격 이후 고용이 빠르게 반등하면서 코로나 이전보다 고용이 더 증가한 반면, 이보다 작은 규모의 제조업체들의 경우 고용 회복이 더디게 나타나고 있다. 고용의 중장기, 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과 제조업 업종에 따른 차이를 보였다. 코로나 발생 이전 3년간의 추세선을 2020년 1월부터 연장한 선과, 2020년 1월부터의 실제 자료를 이용한 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과, 의약품은 코로나19 발생 이전부터 시작하여 코로나19 발생 이후에도 견조한 증가세를 유지하고 있으며, 전자부품·컴퓨터, 기타운송장비, 가구는 코로나19 이후 오히려 고용 추세가 개선되었다. 그러나 다수 업종은 코로나 발생 이후 고용이 하락하였는데, 특히, 비금속광물, 1차금속, 금속가공 분야나 인쇄·기록매체 업종에서 하락이 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.
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