Industry Trends
In December 2024, South Korea’s industrial activities rebounded (by 2.3 percent from the previous month and 1.4 percent year-on-year), as the resolution of disruptions in automobile production and an increase in semiconductor exports drove a big jump in mining and manufacturing production (up 4.6 percent and 5.3 percent, respectively).
| Subject | All industries | Mining & manufacturing |
Service | Retail sales | Capital investment |
Construction completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Dec. 2024 (%) | ∆2.3 | ∆4.6 | ∆1.7 | ▲0.6 | ∆9.9 | ∆1.3 |
In December, the mining and manufacturing industry turned around sharply (from △0.3 percent to 4.6 percent) as the end of labor strikes resolved disruptions in automobile and auto parts production and semiconductors production hit a record high. Despite decreases in face-to-face industries such as accommodation and food, the service industry rebounded (from △0.2 percent to 1.7 percent), driven by increases in semiconductor equipment, fuel wholesale, water transportation, and other sectors. Even as the sales of non-durable goods grew (by 1.0 percent), retail sales shrank (from 0.0 percent to △0.6 percent) as sales of durable goods and semi-durable goods fell (by △4.1 percent and △0.6 percent, respectively). In addition to the rebound in machinery, transportation equipment such as ships and aircrafts were significantly improved and drove an increase in capital investment (from 0.0 to 9.9 percent, recording the highest capital investment index ever [125.5S.A]). Although the civil engineering segment felt after growing in the previous month, construction completed grew (from △0.9 to 1.3 percent) as the construction segment grew. The cyclical change in the coincident index stayed flat as production in the mining, manufacturing and service industries increased while construction completed shrank. Despite the widening term spread, the cyclical change in the leading index fell, affected by the weakening economic sentiment index and others.
With the goal of managing the national economy as stable as possible, the government will focus on improving people’s livelihoods.
※ Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance(moef.go.kr)
Trends by Industry
- Automotive
-
‘ Exports Fell by Double-digits and Turned Negative in Two Months ’
→ In November, exports fell by 12.3 percent year-on-year to mark the first drop in two months, as production disruptions led to a decrease in supply volume and demands for EVs saw a decline. In October, even as the number of imported cars registered fell, domestic demand increased by 4.0 percent year-on-year, driven by brisk sales of new models launched by Korean manufacturers. In October, production turned to growth thanks to the new model release effect and strong exports.
- Shipbuilding
-
‘ Double-digit Growth in Production, Shipments, and Capacity Utilization Rate ’
→ Ship production expanded in October, and double-digit growth in production, shipments, and capacity utilization rate continued. In November, exports grew by 70.8 percent, driven by the delivery of high added-value ships, such as container ships and LNG carriers, which were ordered in 2022 when ship prices were high. October imports increased by 26.5 percent thanks to a large influx of cargo ships. Up to October, South Korea's cumulative order volume totaled 9.7 million CGT, up 8.0 percent year-on-year. The cumulative order backlog, which is the amount of remaining production work, was 37.9 million CGT, indicating that South Korean shipbuilders maintained a high level of order backlog equivalent to more than 3.5 years of production work and continued to selectively receive orders.
- General machinery
-
‘ Production Started Growing, Supported by Recovery in Domestic Demand ’
→ In October, production increased by 9.7 percent year-on-year, led by brisk domestic demand. In November, exports shrank by 18.9 percent year-on-year as exports to the United Stated continued declining. In October, imports increased by 4.6 percent year-on-year as domestic demand recovered and pushed up demands.
- Steel
-
‘Exports Increased for Two Consecutive Months, but Production Remained Sluggish’
→ In October, even as export volume saw a significant increase, production fell by 3.1 percent year-on-year as the domestic demand slump in sectors such as construction worsened and dampened sales. In November, exports grew by 1.3 percent year-on-year as exports to ASEAN and other regions increased despite the intensified competition caused by global oversupply. Despite an increase in imports from China and India, October imports decreased by 0.5 percent year-on-year as sluggish domestic demand weakened demand.
- Oil refining
-
‘Exports Fell by 18.7 percent Year-on-Year as International Oil Prices Continued Declining’
→ Production in October decreased by 7.1 percent year-on-year as domestic refineries cut their capacity utilization rate to cope with weak refining margins. As unit prices continued falling, November exports declined by 18.7 percent year-on-year due to a cut in volume caused by disruptions in domestic shipments and other factors.
- Wireless communication devices
-
‘Global Smartphone Market Continued to Expand, while Exports Fell, Driven by Weak Parts Exports’
→ Shipments and average selling prices (ASP) of the global smartphone market showed a rapid recovery up to the third quarter, but the trend has slowed somewhat since the fourth quarter. October production grew by 5.8 percent year-on-year, but shipments fell by 4.3 percent and inventories increased by 52.7 percent. October imports declined by 14.3 percent, with imports of smartphones shrinking by 24.0 percent year-on-year, but those of smartphone parts growing by 9.9 percent.
- Semiconductor
-
‘Exports Grew for 13 Straight Months’
→ In November, exports amounted to USD 12.453 billion, up 30.8 percent year-on-year, setting a new monthly record for exports. In October, the semiconductor production index was 170.8, down 17.5 percent year-on-year, and up 8.4 percent from the previous month.
- Display
-
‘Exports and Production Remained Weak, Affected by the Previous Year's Strong Performance and the Expansion of Overseas Production’
→ Exports in November fell by 22 percent year-on-year affected by the previous year's strong performance, China's market expansion, and increased overseas production. The production index stood at 70.7 in October, with production and shipment indices falling year-on-year, but inventories decreased at a greater rate, leaving industrial production flat from the previous month.
* Please note that the latest data available in Statistics Korea are for the previous month in the case of exports and the month prior to the previous one for production.
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코로나19 발생 이후 대부분의 고용 관심사가 항공 및 여행서비스, 음식·숙박 서비스 등 주로 서비스 업종에 집중된 상황에서 본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 강조되고 있는 제조업의 고용변화를 살펴보았다. 분석에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 제조업 고용은 비교적 큰 충격 없이 빠르게 회복하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 제조업 고용은 서비스업에 비해 큰 충격 없이 유지되고 있고, 코로나19 직후 2020년 상반기에 약간 하락하였지만 하반기부터 회복 추세를 보이고 있으며, OECD 주요국의 제조업과 비교하여도 일본과 함께 고용 충격이 비교적 작게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 전반적으로 양호한 고용 성적에도 불구하고 제조업 내 특성 별로는 차이가 나타나는 것으로 보인다. 종사상 지위 별로 보면, 임시·일용직, 고용원이 있는 자영업자에서 고용 충격이 상대적으로 크게 나타났고, 상용직과 고용원이 없는 자영업자는 큰 충격이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 제조업 규모별로는 300인 이상의 경우 코로나 발생 초기 약간의 충격 이후 고용이 빠르게 반등하면서 코로나 이전보다 고용이 더 증가한 반면, 이보다 작은 규모의 제조업체들의 경우 고용 회복이 더디게 나타나고 있다. 고용의 중장기, 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과 제조업 업종에 따른 차이를 보였다. 코로나 발생 이전 3년간의 추세선을 2020년 1월부터 연장한 선과, 2020년 1월부터의 실제 자료를 이용한 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과, 의약품은 코로나19 발생 이전부터 시작하여 코로나19 발생 이후에도 견조한 증가세를 유지하고 있으며, 전자부품·컴퓨터, 기타운송장비, 가구는 코로나19 이후 오히려 고용 추세가 개선되었다. 그러나 다수 업종은 코로나 발생 이후 고용이 하락하였는데, 특히, 비금속광물, 1차금속, 금속가공 분야나 인쇄·기록매체 업종에서 하락이 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.
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