Industry Trends
In November 2024, South Korea’s industrial activities declined slightly, as production of all industries (△0.4 percent from the previous quarter), including the construction industry (△0.2 percent), remained sluggish. The mining and manufacturing industry shrank (△0.7 percent from the previous quarter) due to production disruptions caused by the labor strikes of auto parts manufacturers, but continued to grow (0.1 percent) on a year-on-year basis, driven by a significant jump (11.1 percent) in semiconductor production.
| Subject | All industries | Mining & manufacturing |
Service | Retail sales | Capital investment |
Construction completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Nov. 2024(%) | ∆0.4 | ∆0.7 | ∆0.2 | ▲0.4 | ∆1.6 | ∆0.2 |
In November, the mining and manufacturing industry fell (from 0.0 percent to △0.7 percent) despite an all-time high production of semiconductors, due to production disruptions caused by the labor strikes of auto parts manufacturers. The service industry shrank (from 0.6 percent to △0.2 percent) despite improvements in lodging, food, and retail segments, mostly in financial and insurance segments where banks saw a slowdown in the growth of household and corporate loans. Retail sales rose (from △0.8 percent to 0.4 percent) despite sluggish sales of durable goods (△0.1 percent) and non-durable goods (△0.7 percent), supported by brisk sales of semi-durable goods (4.1 percent), such as clothing and shoes. Affected by the base effect of the large increase in the past, capital investment shrank (from △5.9 percent to △1.6 percent), with investments in transportation equipment growing and those in machinery falling. Construction completed decreased due to the slow construction segment, but the fall slowed (from △4.1 percent to △0.2 percent) thanks to improvements in the civil engineering segment, such as plant construction. The cyclical change in the coincident index declined due to a fall in construction completed and domestic shipments. The cyclical change in the leading index grew, led by increases in construction orders and the machinery segment’s domestic shipment index.
With the goal of managing our economy as stable as possible, the government will need to mobilize all available resources - such as a revision in the fund management plan under the Economic Policy Direction for 2025, additional investments of public institutions, and policy-based loans - to revitalize the national economy and domestic demand.
※ Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance(moef.go.kr)
Trends by Industry
- Automotive
-
‘Exports Continued the Upward Trend by Recording the Best Performance for the Month of October’
→ In October, exports increased for the second consecutive month, up 5.6 percent year-on-year, thanks to strong exports of finished vehicles and parts to the US. In September, domestic sales remained flat year-on-year, but increased by 2.6 percent month-on-month and turned positive for the first time in six months, thanks to the release of new models and increased supply. Despite the release of new models, September production remained flat due to a drop in the production of large passenger cars.
- Shipbuilding
-
‘Exports Fell due to the Base Effect, but Production and Capacity Utilization Rate Continued to Improve’
→ In September, all production indices continued to show double-digit growth on a year-on-year basis. October exports performed above the annual average with the delivery of high-value ships, but fell by 28.5 percent due to the base effect of the dramatic increase in the same month of the previous year. In September, imports rose by 58.7 percent, influenced by the increase in imports of not only ships but also ship engines and parts. Up to September, South Korea's cumulative orders increased by 22.2 percent year-on-year, including large orders for LNG carriers from Qatar, large container ships, and tankers, but orders somewhat slowed down since the second half of the year.
- General machinery
-
‘Declined due to Sluggish Production and Exports’
→ In September, production fell by 0.6 percent year-on-year as exports slowed down amidst growing domestic demand backed by strong capital investment and machinery orders. Exports in October decreased by 8.1 percent year-on-year, affected by sluggish exports to the United States. September imports grew by 5.3 percent year-on-year due to a delay in the recovery of demand in the downstream industries.
- Steel
-
‘Production Continued to Decline, and Exports Turned Positive’
→ In September, production decreased by 3.3 percent year-on-year despite the start of the industry’s peak season, due to the Chuseok holiday, sluggish domestic demand, and the impact of facility maintenance. Exports in October grew by 8.8 percent year-on-year, with steel makers expanding exports to make up for sluggish domestic demand and increasing exports to ASEAN, the EU, and others. September imports shrank by 2.5 percent year-on-year despite an increase in imports from China, with sluggish domestic demand dampening imports from Japan and the US.
- Oil refining
-
‘Fell Sharply Year-on-Year as Exports, Unit Prices, and Volume Slid Altogether’
→ In September, production increased by 1.4 percent year-on-year despite the continuation of weak refining margins, as domestic refineries maintained the upward-revised capacity utilization rate. In October, exports plunged by as much as 34.9 percent year-on-year as regular maintenance of domestic refining facilities slashed volume while unit prices continued to fall.
- Wireless communication devices
-
‘October Exports Increased by 19.7 percent Year-on-Year to Grow for Eight Straight Months as Global Demand Improved and Parts Exports Grew’
→Global smartphone shipments have begun to increase in full swing with the arrival of the IT device replacement cycle, China's introduction of economic stimulus measures, and expectations of economic recovery following the US presidential election. In September, production increased by 10.1 percent year-on-year thanks to the recovery of exports, and shipments also grew by 36.7 percent to enable a big jump of 26.6 percent in capacity utilization rate. In September, imports of wireless communication devices soared by 59.9 percent year-on-year, driven by a huge increase in the demand for Apple’s new products.
- Semiconductor
-
‘Strong Export Growth Continued’
→ In October, exports grew by 40.3 percent year-on-year to reach USD 12.544 billion, and set a new monthly export record for the month of October. The September semiconductor production index was 160.3, down by 3.0 percent year-on-year and by 2.6 percent month-on-month.
- Display
-
‘Production and Exports Fell, Affected by the Previous Year’s Strong Performance and Slowdown in Related Industries’
→ Exports in October declined by 22.7 percent year-on-year, affected by the strong performance in the previous year and a recent slowdown in demand for IT home appliances. September production fell by 0.3 percent year-on-year, and shipments (-0.2 percent) and inventories (-3.3 percent) also declined.
* Please note that the latest data available in Statistics Korea are for the previous month in the case of exports and the month prior to the previous one for production.
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코로나19 발생 이후 대부분의 고용 관심사가 항공 및 여행서비스, 음식·숙박 서비스 등 주로 서비스 업종에 집중된 상황에서 본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 강조되고 있는 제조업의 고용변화를 살펴보았다. 분석에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 제조업 고용은 비교적 큰 충격 없이 빠르게 회복하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 제조업 고용은 서비스업에 비해 큰 충격 없이 유지되고 있고, 코로나19 직후 2020년 상반기에 약간 하락하였지만 하반기부터 회복 추세를 보이고 있으며, OECD 주요국의 제조업과 비교하여도 일본과 함께 고용 충격이 비교적 작게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 전반적으로 양호한 고용 성적에도 불구하고 제조업 내 특성 별로는 차이가 나타나는 것으로 보인다. 종사상 지위 별로 보면, 임시·일용직, 고용원이 있는 자영업자에서 고용 충격이 상대적으로 크게 나타났고, 상용직과 고용원이 없는 자영업자는 큰 충격이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 제조업 규모별로는 300인 이상의 경우 코로나 발생 초기 약간의 충격 이후 고용이 빠르게 반등하면서 코로나 이전보다 고용이 더 증가한 반면, 이보다 작은 규모의 제조업체들의 경우 고용 회복이 더디게 나타나고 있다. 고용의 중장기, 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과 제조업 업종에 따른 차이를 보였다. 코로나 발생 이전 3년간의 추세선을 2020년 1월부터 연장한 선과, 2020년 1월부터의 실제 자료를 이용한 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과, 의약품은 코로나19 발생 이전부터 시작하여 코로나19 발생 이후에도 견조한 증가세를 유지하고 있으며, 전자부품·컴퓨터, 기타운송장비, 가구는 코로나19 이후 오히려 고용 추세가 개선되었다. 그러나 다수 업종은 코로나 발생 이후 고용이 하락하였는데, 특히, 비금속광물, 1차금속, 금속가공 분야나 인쇄·기록매체 업종에서 하락이 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.
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