Industry Trends
In October 2024, South Korea’s industrial activities fell from the previous quarter (△0.3 percent from the previous quarter) due to continued sluggishness of the construction industry (△4.0 percent). On a year-to-year basis, however, the nation’s industrial activities turned positive (2.3 percent) in just one month, thanks to a significant increase in the mining and manufacturing industries (up 6.3 percent year-on-year), including a surge in semiconductor production.
| Subject | All industries | Mining & manufacturing |
Service | Retail sales | Capital investment |
Construction completed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ‘Oct. 2024 (%) | ▲0.3 | 0.0 | ∆0.3 | ▲0.4 | ▲5.8 | ▲4.0 |
In October, mining and manufacturing production stayed flat (from △0.1 percent to 0.0 percent) as increased semiconductor production made up for the temporary production disruption caused by the strike of car parts manufacturers. The service industry rebounded (from △0.8 percent to 0.3 percent) due to the spread of infectious diseases (e.g., whooping cough), an increase in inbound tourists, and the beginning of the professional winter sports season. Retail sales fell from △0.5 percent to △0.4 percent as sales increased for semi-durable goods (4.1 percent) and non-durable goods (0.6 percent), but decreased for durable goods (△5.8 percent) due to the strike and base effects. Facilities investment was adjusted after a big jump in the previous month, mainly for machinery such as semiconductor equipment. Construction completed fell further (from △0.7 percent to △4.0 percent) as construction and civil sectors shrunk together. The cyclical change in the coincident index stayed flat despite the falling amount of construction completed as the mining and manufacturing index improved. The cyclical change in the leading index fell due to the effect of falling KOSPI and others.
※ Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance(moef.go.kr)
Trends by Industry
- Automotive
-
‘September Exports Turned Positive for the First Time in Four Months, Driven by Robust Demand for South Korean Cars from North America’
→September exports ended the three-month decline to grow by 1.8 percent year-on-year, driven by the strong performance of hybrid vehicles and the subsequent increase in the exports of finished vehicles. Domestic demand in August shrunk by 3.3 percent year-on-year as consumption remained sluggish despite the launch of new models. Production in August stayed flat year-on-year, with upside and downside factors offsetting each other.
- Shipbuilding
-
‘As Production Indices Continued to Improve, the Industry’s Exports and Imports Surged Together’
→In August, the industry’s production, shipments, and capacity utilization rates continued to rise together by double digits. In September, exports surged by 76.2 percent year-on-year as a large number of container ships and LNG carriers were delivered. In August, imports grew by 94.4 percent year-on-year, driven by a significant increase in the imports of ships and ship parts. South Korea continues to win orders for LNG and LPG carriers and tankers, but competition between South Korea and China is intensifying as China wins more orders for high-value-added vessels.
- General machinery
-
‘Despite Sluggish Production and Exports, the Industry’s Performance Stayed Similar to the Previous Year, Supported by Growing Domestic Demand’
→ In August, the industry’s production remained at the same level as the previous year as exports plummeted even as domestic shipments and facility investment supported the growth of domestic demand. Exports in September declined by 13.3 percent year-on-year, led by falling exports to the US. Imports in August remained at the same level (0.0 percent) as the previous year due to the slow recovery in demand in the upstream industries.
- Steel
-
‘Production Continued to Increase Month-on-Month, while Exports Fell Further due to Falling Unit Prices and Intensified Competition’
→ In August, production decreased by 2.2 percent year-on-year due to a contraction in the domestic economy, including a sluggish construction market, but continued to grow month-on-month as exports expanded. In September, exports fell by 3.9 percent year-on-year as exports to major countries slowed, and competition in the global market intensified. Despite the increase in imports of low-end products from China, imports in August declined by 4.1 percent year-on-year, affected by rising import prices and sluggish domestic demand.
- Oil refining
-
‘Despite Increases in Exports and Export Volume, the Industry’s Export Amount Fell by 17.8 percent Year-on-Year due to Falling Unit Prices’
→ In August, production increased by 16.6 percent year-on-year, supported by an increase in domestic demand and export volume and an upward revision of the capacity utilization rate of domestic refining facilities. In September, the industry’s export amount slid by 17.8 percent year-on-year as oil prices plummeted by 21.1 percent.
- Wireless communication devices
-
‘September Exports Increased by 19 percent to Grow for Seven Straight Months, Supported by the Expansion of the Global Smartphone Market’
→ September exports increased by 19 percent year-on-year, with exports of mobile phone parts - the country’s main export product—increasing by a significant 24.8 percent as global smartphone makers increased production. In August, production increased by 26.2 percent year-on-year, and shipments also increased by 0.5 percent. However, inventories jumped by 99.8 percent as consumers postpone purchase and wait for the launch of a new flagship product scheduled for launch in the fourth quarter. August imports declined by 16.4 percent year-on-year due to falling imports of smartphones and parts.
- Semiconductor
-
‘Monthly Exports Hit Record High in Three Months’
→ September exports reached USD 13.6 billion, a 37.1 percent increase from the same month last year, setting a new record. The semiconductor production index in August recorded 161.8, up 10.3 percent year-on-year, and turned positive again from the previous month.
- Display
-
‘Exports Down and Inventories Up due to Strong Performance in the Previous Year and Intensified Global Competition’
→ In August, production fell by 2.8 percent year-on-year, while the capacity utilization rate rose by 4.5 percent. In September, exports decreased by 4.3 percent year-on-year, affected by the impact of strong performance in the previous year, while new demand continued with the launch of new IT products.
* Please note that the latest data available in Statistics Korea are for the previous month in the case of exports and the month prior to the previous one for production.
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코로나19 발생 이후 대부분의 고용 관심사가 항공 및 여행서비스, 음식·숙박 서비스 등 주로 서비스 업종에 집중된 상황에서 본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 강조되고 있는 제조업의 고용변화를 살펴보았다. 분석에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 제조업 고용은 비교적 큰 충격 없이 빠르게 회복하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 제조업 고용은 서비스업에 비해 큰 충격 없이 유지되고 있고, 코로나19 직후 2020년 상반기에 약간 하락하였지만 하반기부터 회복 추세를 보이고 있으며, OECD 주요국의 제조업과 비교하여도 일본과 함께 고용 충격이 비교적 작게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 전반적으로 양호한 고용 성적에도 불구하고 제조업 내 특성 별로는 차이가 나타나는 것으로 보인다. 종사상 지위 별로 보면, 임시·일용직, 고용원이 있는 자영업자에서 고용 충격이 상대적으로 크게 나타났고, 상용직과 고용원이 없는 자영업자는 큰 충격이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 제조업 규모별로는 300인 이상의 경우 코로나 발생 초기 약간의 충격 이후 고용이 빠르게 반등하면서 코로나 이전보다 고용이 더 증가한 반면, 이보다 작은 규모의 제조업체들의 경우 고용 회복이 더디게 나타나고 있다. 고용의 중장기, 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과 제조업 업종에 따른 차이를 보였다. 코로나 발생 이전 3년간의 추세선을 2020년 1월부터 연장한 선과, 2020년 1월부터의 실제 자료를 이용한 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과, 의약품은 코로나19 발생 이전부터 시작하여 코로나19 발생 이후에도 견조한 증가세를 유지하고 있으며, 전자부품·컴퓨터, 기타운송장비, 가구는 코로나19 이후 오히려 고용 추세가 개선되었다. 그러나 다수 업종은 코로나 발생 이후 고용이 하락하였는데, 특히, 비금속광물, 1차금속, 금속가공 분야나 인쇄·기록매체 업종에서 하락이 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.
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