KIET Industrial Economic Review
Industrial policy has returned to the forefront of economic policy discussions,
driven by the green and digital transitions, supply-chain resilience, and concerns
about market concentration and strategic dependencies. This paper argues that
the recent surge in industrial-policy discourse and announcements exceeds
the expansion of measurable support. Semantic analyses of the Global Trade
Alert database indicate a steep increase in announced measures (from 42 in
2010 to 1,483 in 2022).
Using the OECD Quantifying Industrial Strategies (QuIS) database for 17
OECD economies from 2019 to 2023, the paper documents three stylized
facts. First, spending through grants and tax expenditures rose by about 10
percent on average (from 1.39 percent to 1.59 percent of GDP), whereas support
delivered via financial instruments declined slightly (from 0.97 percent
to 0.87 percent of GDP). Second, industrial policy instruments are highly
persistent, with limited entry and exit. Third, the observed targets of support
have shifted, with expanded schemes related to fixed-capital investment, the
green transition, R&D activities, energy costs, and SMEs, alongside reduced
sectoral support.
The paper then sets out how to design and govern industrial policy using
an OECD policy-cycle lens: a clear conceptual framework and objectives,
coordination across policy actors and instruments, robust measurement and
benchmarking, implementation capacity, and rigorous ex post evaluation. It
concludes by emphasizing the need to strengthen evidence on beneficiaries,
large-firm subsidies, and cross-border spillovers to ensure industrial policy
supports productivity, resilience, and sustainable growth.
(Intro)
Hello. My name is Kyung-in HWANG, Director of the Office of Public Relations and Media at the Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade (KIET).
As KIET marks its 50th anniversary, we are hosting a series of dialogues with leading international scholars
in which they share their insights on rapidly changing industrial conditions and major policy issues.
Today, we will be speaking with Dr. Guy Lalanne, Acting Head of Division — Productivity, Innovation,
and Entrepreneurship at OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation.
Lalanne previously served as Deputy Director of the Macroeconomic Forecasting Division
and the Business Policy, R&D and Innovation Division at the French Ministry of Finance.
Q1.
We understand the OECD recently built a database called QuiS,dedicated specifically to industrial policy.
Could you explain the background behind this initiative?
Q2.
Many countries are pursuing industrial policy on a significant scale, leading some to declare that we have entered a new era of muscular industrial policy.
However, in your contribution to IER, you note how the number of announced policies far exceeds the number of policies that have been actually implemented.
Are we really in a new era of tough industrial policy?
Q3.
In terms of policy instruments, direct fiscal support has been increasing, while the use of financial instruments (such as the creation of funds) appears to be declining.
What do you think is driving countries to choose this particular mix?
Q4.
Another notable feature is that once industrial policies are introduced,
they tend to persist over long periods without sunset clauses or termination, regardless of their effectiveness.
What do you see as the underlying cause of this tendency?
Q5. Looking at the areas receiving support, there has been a sharp increase in spending on the green transition, SMEs, and rising energy costs.
In your view, which of these areas is most likely to contribute to long-term productivity growth?
(Outro)
So far, I have been talking with Professor Guy Lalanne.
The 50th Anniversary Special Project: Dialogues with International Scholars will continue in the future,
so please show your interest and watch.
Thank you.
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코로나19 발생 이후 대부분의 고용 관심사가 항공 및 여행서비스, 음식·숙박 서비스 등 주로 서비스 업종에 집중된 상황에서 본 연구는 최근 그 중요성이 강조되고 있는 제조업의 고용변화를 살펴보았다. 분석에 따르면, 코로나19 이후 제조업 고용은 비교적 큰 충격 없이 빠르게 회복하는 모습을 보이고 있다. 제조업 고용은 서비스업에 비해 큰 충격 없이 유지되고 있고, 코로나19 직후 2020년 상반기에 약간 하락하였지만 하반기부터 회복 추세를 보이고 있으며, OECD 주요국의 제조업과 비교하여도 일본과 함께 고용 충격이 비교적 작게 나타나고 있다. 그러나 전반적으로 양호한 고용 성적에도 불구하고 제조업 내 특성 별로는 차이가 나타나는 것으로 보인다. 종사상 지위 별로 보면, 임시·일용직, 고용원이 있는 자영업자에서 고용 충격이 상대적으로 크게 나타났고, 상용직과 고용원이 없는 자영업자는 큰 충격이 없는 것으로 나타났다. 제조업 규모별로는 300인 이상의 경우 코로나 발생 초기 약간의 충격 이후 고용이 빠르게 반등하면서 코로나 이전보다 고용이 더 증가한 반면, 이보다 작은 규모의 제조업체들의 경우 고용 회복이 더디게 나타나고 있다. 고용의 중장기, 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과 제조업 업종에 따른 차이를 보였다. 코로나 발생 이전 3년간의 추세선을 2020년 1월부터 연장한 선과, 2020년 1월부터의 실제 자료를 이용한 단기 추세선을 비교한 결과, 의약품은 코로나19 발생 이전부터 시작하여 코로나19 발생 이후에도 견조한 증가세를 유지하고 있으며, 전자부품·컴퓨터, 기타운송장비, 가구는 코로나19 이후 오히려 고용 추세가 개선되었다. 그러나 다수 업종은 코로나 발생 이후 고용이 하락하였는데, 특히, 비금속광물, 1차금속, 금속가공 분야나 인쇄·기록매체 업종에서 하락이 상대적으로 크게 나타났다.
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